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Those thinking that the turning of the year would immediately bring better news now know that they will need to wait longer. January was again not a happy month for investors. The US share market had its worst beginning ever for the first 20 days. The early-month weakness was concentrated in financials rather than in cyclical stocks, suggesting that the ongoing banking sector problems were of more concern than the general economic weakness. For all of January, the S&P500 index fell by 8.6%, although it remains 9.8% above its 20 November low.

Quarterly Outlook draws on the views and opinions of Australia’s leading funds management organisations, as well as the views of the Lonsec Investment Committee. Quarterly Outlook presents tactical positions (overweight, underweight and neutral) towards shares, property, fixed interest and cash, based on these combined inputs.

Results from the December quarter were an apt summary of the grim year investors had in 2008. 

Over the three month period, at least 19 countries declared recession, leading to unprecedented levels of volatility in equity markets. The Australian share market recorded its fifth consecutive negative quarter. 

The declining global growth led to commodities and commodity stocks being sold off heavily, thus having flow-on effect on the Australian dollar, which declined significantly.

An overview of the latest figures in the American economy provided by Chris Caton.

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 In a world where “saving” is a dirty word and “credit” is a match made in heaven, we are seeing some of the toughest financial times ahead of us.

I believe we have 12 to 24 months of continued credit issues and volatility in the markets ahead of us. The reason for this is the continued push to create more financial stimulus. Governments and Central Banks have gone on record to state “we will print money WITHOUT Limitation”. With this continued money printing, we continue down the same path that got us into this mess in the first place.

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In a recent poll conducted by Roy Morgan Research published in the Australian Financial Review on 8 December 2008 it noted “most people who go to an adviser tied to one of the big six financial groups continue to be stuffed into the funds managed by the parent group...” 

The poll found that a whopping 74% of recommendations were made to the parent group fund products!!

BT Chief Economist Chris Caton talks unemployment, interest rates and the Aussie dollar in 2009.

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BT Investment Management’s Scott Osborne shares his lessons from 2008 and what he’s watching this year.

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